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☆ Here's the deflation breakdown for April 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Consumers have largely seen prices deflate for physical goods, such as cars, furniture and appliances, economists said. They've also declined for some groceries and other things, such as travel, according to the consumer price index. Physical goods prices have deflated in all but one month since May 2023, for example. watch nowThe U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. Downward pressure on goods prices has waned a bit in recent months as supply-and-demand dynamics have normalized, economists said.

Persons: Oscar Wong, They've, they've, Michael Pugliese, Stephen Brown, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Hayley Berg, Hopper, There's, Brown Organizations: Consumers, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, North, Capital Economics, Finance, GameStop, AMC, U.S, Federal Reserve, Canadian, Moody's, Airlines Locations: Wells Fargo, North America, U.S

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for April 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

That increase is largely due to dynamics in the market for crude oil, which is refined into gasoline, economists said. Annual housing inflation declined to 5.5% in April from 5.7% in March. Shelter and gasoline inflation combined contributed more than 70% of the monthly CPI increase for all items, according to the BLS. Americans' buying patterns also simultaneously shifted away from services — such as entertainment and travel — toward physical goods since they stayed at home more, driving up demand and fueling decades-high goods inflation. Wage growth has been one contributor to services inflation, for example, economists said.

Persons: Grace Cary, That's, Mark Zandi, we're, Zandi, Michael Pugliese, Trump, Stephen Brown, Pugliese Organizations: U.S . Labor Department, Moody's Analytics, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Finance, GameStop, AMC, Biden, North, Capital Economics, Supply Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America

☆ 'Something could break': The Fed risks recession, bank failures if it doesn't cut rates soon, economist Mark Zandi says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed risks "breaking" something in the economy if it delays rate cuts, according to Moody's Mark Zandi. Higher interest rates raise the odds of recession or bank failures, the economist warned. "If I were king for the day, I would really be cutting rates at this point," Zandi told Yahoo Finance. Speaking to Yahoo Finance on Thursday, Zandi warned of the consequences that could arise if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates over the next few months. Keeping rates at their current level raises the risk of recession, and could expose other cracks in the financial system, Zandi warned.

Persons: Moody's Mark Zandi, Zandi, —, Mark Zandi Organizations: Yahoo Finance, Service, Moody's, Business

☆ As home sellers, buyers wait on a Fed cut, here's how mortgage rates have impacted the spring housing market
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Ana Teresa Solá | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

People looking to buy or sell a home this spring are paying close attention to mortgage rates. The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.17% for the week ending April 25, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve. It remains unclear when the Federal Reserve might make its first rate cut. "I believe our first rate cut is penciled in for July," said Matthew Walsh, assistant director and economist at Moody's Analytics. "We might not see rates fall in any meaningful way until [the] later half of this year," he said.

Persons: Freddie Mac, Matthew Walsh, Walsh Organizations: Federal Reserve, Moody's Analytics, Finance

☆ 'Not that concerned' about inflation getting back to Fed's 2% target, says Moody's Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Not that concerned' about inflation getting back to Fed's 2% target, says Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if the economy's performing 'too well', how Zandi expects inflation to play out, and more.

Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi

☆ Wall Street pushes out rate-cut expectations, sees risk they don't start until March 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

If there was any doubt before, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has pretty much cemented the likelihood that there won't be interest rate reductions anytime soon. Now, Wall Street is wondering if the central bank will cut at all this year. "My sense is they need two, probably three consecutive months of inflation numbers that are consistent with that 2% target. Market pricing for rate cuts has been highly volatile in recent weeks as Wall Street has chased fluctuating Fed rhetoric. As for a second rate cut, there was a tilt toward one in December, but that remains an open question.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, there's, They've, Mark Zandi, Zandi Organizations: Financial, Moody's, Fed Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for March 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The big rock in the way here is the cost of shelter," Zandi said. In fact, underlying inflation after stripping out shelter costs is already back to target, Zandi said. watch nowThe increase is largely attributable to higher oil prices. "For most Americans, the thing that bothers them the most about inflation is high food prices." Americans' buying patterns also simultaneously shifted away from services — like entertainment and travel — toward physical goods since they stayed at home more, driving up demand and fueling decades-high goods inflation.

Persons: Eric Thayer, That's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, It's, Hamrick, They're, Sarah House Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Labor Department, Moody's, of Labor Statistics, U.S, Energy Information Administration, BLS, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ Inflation will be key to Fed's decision on rate cuts: Moody's Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will be key to Fed's decision on rate cuts: Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist, and Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to break down Jerome Powell's Wednesday remarks and more.

Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi, Ted Rossman, Steve Liesman, Jerome Powell's

☆ Euro zone inflation unexpectedly slows to 2.4% in March, with core print also below forecast
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Inflation in the 20-nation euro zone eased to 2.4% in March, according to flash figures published on Wednesday, boosting expectations for interest rate cuts to begin in the summer. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the rate would hold steady against the previous month at 2.6%. The core rate of inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, cooled from 3.1% to 2.9%, also coming in below expectations. Markets expect the euro zone's central bank will begin lowering borrowing costs in June — a position reflected in the recent messaging of ECB decision-makers. "Inflation has declined despite a jump in energy inflation, and a boost from an early Easter.

Persons: European Central Bank —, Price, Robert Holzmann, Carsten Brzeski, Kamil Kovar, Kovar Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, ING, Moody's Locations: Rome, Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Austrian

☆ Bumper corporate profits helped prevent mass layoffs and a recession, says leading economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

After-tax profits hit a record high of $2.8 trillion in the fourth quarter, per the Commerce Department. "The gangbuster gain in profits helps explain why businesses have been able and willing to hold the line on layoffs, which was key to avoiding recession," he said. Advertisement"It also helps explain the record stock market, and the resulting positive wealth effects and resilient consumer spending." Related storiesAs for stocks, they're generally valued at a multiple to company profits so they've hit record highs too. That has made stockholders feel wealthier and more comfortable spending, Zandi said.

Persons: —, Mark Zandi, That's, Zandi Organizations: Service, Corporate America, Corporations, Commerce Department, Business, Federal Reserve, Companies

☆ Economist discusses Baltimore bridge collapse
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBaltimore bridge collapse won't be 'straw that broke the camel's back' in global shipping: EconomistHarry Murphy Cruise, associate economist at Moody's Analytics, says, however, that it comes at a "really fragile time" in global shipping.

Persons: Harry Murphy Cruise Organizations: Moody's Locations: Baltimore

☆ The wealth of the 1% just hit a record $44 trillion
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Robert Frank | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Middle-class Americans have also seen a rising wealth tide, with the middle 50% to 90% of Americans seeing their wealth increase 50%. The value of corporate equities and mutual fund shares held by the top 1% surged to $19.7 trillion from $17.65 trillion the previous quarter. The wealth of the top 1% hit a record $44.6 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter, as an end-of-year stock rally lifted their portfolios, according to new data from the Federal Reserve. Economists say the rising stock market is giving an added boost to consumer spending through what is known as the "wealth effect." "Of course, this highlights a vulnerability of the economy if the stock market were to falter.

Persons: Robert Frank, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, – Sonders Organizations: Federal Reserve, Moody's, Stocks, Conference Board Locations: U.S

☆ Home price growth is back at pre-pandemic levels. Here's what that means for buyers and sellers
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( Ana Teresa Solá | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"We're back to that trend, despite these higher mortgage rates," she said. However, the market today is vastly different from the market two to eight years ago, experts say. The average home is still unaffordable for most potential buyers while inventory has slightly improved but not enough to meet demand. "The sentiment we're getting from our agents is that neither sellers nor buyers are satisfied with this market," Fairweather said. And buyers are disappointed in rising prices and rising mortgage rates."

Persons: Daryl Fairweather, Matthew Walsh, It's, Fairweather, Sellers Organizations: Finance, Moody's Locations: U.S

☆ Moody's Analytics says it expects the Bank of Japan to exit negative interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMoody's Analytics says it expects the Bank of Japan to exit negative interest ratesKatrina Ell of Moody's Analytics says that's partly because of the "upside surprise" of the shunto wage negotiations.

Organizations: Bank of Japan

☆ Moody's Analytics: The Japanese economy is 'not looking too well'
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMoody's Analytics: The Japanese economy is 'not looking too well'Stefan Angrick, associate director at Moody's Analytics, says Japan's "real economy has been struggling."

Persons: Stefan Angrick

☆ The pandemic forced many women to leave their jobs. Hybrid work is bringing them back.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-10 | by ( Allie Kelly | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A rise in remote and hybrid jobs has allowed many women to seek higher-income roles. A narrowing of gender labor force gap since 2019 has added about $1.5 trillion to global income. Many women were forced to leave their jobs during the pandemic, thanks to poor market conditions and a rising need for childcare and older adult care. In the US, around 70% of working-age women participated in the labor force in 2020. Remote jobs also offer more flexibility.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, US Bureau of Labor, Statistics, Pew Research Center, European Union Locations: Australia, India, Japan

☆ These 28 regional and community banks exceed regulators' threshold for high commercial real estate concentration risk: here's what's really at stake.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

But where banks' exposure to commercial real estate is concerned, locating that fire may be difficult. Rising interest rates quickly increased the cost of borrowing for investors in commercial real estate, including offices and multifamily homes. It doesn't reveal details such as borrowers' track records, said Mark Hillis, a former chief risk officer for commercial real estate at JPMorgan. There's also varying concentration risk: the largest banks with commercial real estate exposure are more diversified, meaning that any losses won't be as devastating, Baker said. "We think very few banks will run into issues just from their commercial real estate exposure," Reidy said.

Persons: Michael Barr, Jerome Powell, Todd Baker, Mark Hillis, Clifford Rossi, Robert H, Rossi, Baker, There's, Hillis, multifamily, haven't, You'll, Banks, you'll, Rebel Cole, NYCB, Matt Reidy, Reidy, Cole Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, York Community Bank, SEC, Richman Center for Business, Law, Columbia University, JPMorgan, Smith, Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, Mortgage Banker's Association, Bank, Signature Bank, First, Countrywide Bank, Washington Mutual, Citigroup, multifamily, Florida Atlantic University, Federal, Regulators, TCRE, Equity RCRE, Community Bank, Provident Bank NJ, Merchants Bank of Indiana, Apple Bank for Savings, Oceanfirst Bank, Independent Bank, Lakeland Bank NJ, Ozk, Washington Federal Bank WA, Axos Bank, Sandy Spring Bank, Columbia Bank NJ, Farmers, Merchants Bank of CA, Popular Bank, Pacific Premier Bank, United Bank, Trust, Rockland Trust, Umpqua Bank, ServisFirst Bank, Bell Bank, Stellar Bank, National Bank of, National Bank of Florida FL, New York Community Bank Locations: multifamily, Basel, CRE, California, Rockland, National Bank of Florida

☆ The economy is resilient and fine but feels soft: Moody's Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy is resilient and fine but feels soft: Moody's Mark ZandiPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss their take from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony, whether the Fed is in the mood to cut interest rates soon, and more.

Persons: Mark Zandi Peter Boockvar, Mark Zandi, Steve Liesman, Jerome Powell's Organizations: Bleakley Financial

☆ Immigration is 'taking pressure off' the job market and U.S. economy, expert says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-02 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said the increase in foreign-born workers is "taking pressure off the economy." The growth in foreign-born workers comes amid a contentious immigration policy debate in the U.S. Immigrants' share of the labor force has increased since 1996, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics began collecting such data. A growing population and labor force are key components of a healthy economy and the nation's ability to pay its bills, economists said. In other words, the economy is both absorbing immigrants and generating job opportunities for U.S.-born workers, the institute said.

Persons: Mark Zandi, it's, Alejandro Mayorkas, John Moore, Muzaffar Chishti, Jack Malde, Qian Weizhong, Steven Camarota, Camarota, Paul Ratje, Eric Thayer, Malde, EPI, Zandi, There's, Luis Alvarez Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, Republicans, U.S, Department of Homeland, U.S . Border Patrol, U.S . Department of Homeland, Getty, Migration Policy Institute, CNBC, Foreign, U.S . Immigrants, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pew Research Center, Social Security, Congressional, Office, Center, Immigration, . Border Patrol, Getty Images, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Center for Immigration Studies, Afp, Bloomberg, Economic Policy Institute, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine, Digitalvision Locations: U.S, Mexico, Eagle Pass , Texas, San Diego , California, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Paso, Ciudad Juarez , Mexico, Los Angeles

☆ A little-noticed inflation report in the past could get a lot of market attention on Thursday
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

With markets on edge over the direction of inflation, a report Thursday that often flies under the economic radar is likely to take on more importance. The Commerce Department's measure of personal consumption expenditures prices could add to evidence that inflation is stickier than some economists and policymakers had thought. Two-year inflation breakevens, or the difference between Treasury yields and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have surged in recent days. "But I think the labor market is a lot more fragile than people think. A report Wednesday confirmed that economic growth was solid to close out 2023, with fourth-quarter GDP accelerating at a 3.2% annualized pace adjusted for seasonal factors and inflation.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Zandi, shouldn't, we're, it's, —, Susan Collins, Collins, Dow Jones, Dow, Michelle Cluver, Cluver, I've Organizations: Moody's, Boston, Securities, Treasury, Fed, Labor, CPI, Dow Jones, optimist Locations: U.S

☆ A hard-landing recession is guaranteed as the full impact of Fed rate hikes have yet to hit the economy, Morgan Stanley's chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A hard landing is guaranteed for the US Morgan Stanley's chief US economist. That's because the full impacts of Fed tightening haven't been fully felt in the economy. It could take 18 months after the last rate hike to feel the full weight of higher rates, economists say. Zentner is expecting the US to avoid a recession this year, as there's no data to support a soon-to-come downturn. AdvertisementStill, signs point to the Fed keeping interest rates elevated as it keeps an eye on inflation.

Persons: US Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Zentner, Jamie Dimon's Organizations: US, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Analytics, Bank, Investors

Inflation is still having an impact, and consumers are definitely feeling it at the grocery store. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. I have seen this myself when I go to the grocery store and buy five items … for $65. They are typically going to be cheaper than the grocery store,” Seiler says. Check your pantry firstThis last tip is one that we all can and should do before even making a shopping list.

Persons: Hillary Seiler, —, Seiler, “, ” Seiler Organizations: Service, NFL, Business

☆ Deflation: Here's where prices fell in January 2024, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

These are the big deflationary factors"A lot of factors have come together to push goods prices down," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. In addition to normalizing supply-demand dynamics, a historically strong U.S. dollar relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in goods prices, Zandi said. Falling energy prices have also put downward pressure on goods prices, due to lower transportation and energy-intensive manufacturing costs, economists said. Lower energy prices also put downward pressure on the transportation of food to store shelves. Consumers get more for roughly the same amount of money, which shows up as a price decline in the CPI data.

Persons: RC Willey, George Frey, Jay Bryson, there's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, rebalancing, J.P, Hopper Organizations: RC, Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Moody's, U.S . Federal, Services, Finance, Morgan's, Investment, Group, of Labor Statistics Locations: Draper , Utah, Wells Fargo, U.S, Salinas, California

☆ A German bank says it's preparing for the worst property crisis since '08 as commercial real estate distress spreads
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG said it's bracing for an ongoing decline in commercial real estate. It called the downturn "the greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis." Shares of the German bank have declined about 25% year-to-date. AdvertisementSigns of commercial real estate distress continue to mount, with the latest warning coming from German lending giant Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG. "Despite these expenses, pbb remains profitable thanks to its financial strength – even in the greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis," the bank said in a statement February 7.

Persons: —, they've Organizations: Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG, Service

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for January 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The consumer price index, a key inflation gauge, rose 3.1% in January relative to a year earlier, the U.S. Labor Department said Tuesday. Where inflation was high in JanuaryCartons of orange juice on display in a grocery store in Los Angeles. Mario Tama | Getty ImagesDespite broad disinflation, there are specific categories where inflation remains relatively high. watch nowAdditionally, shelter inflation is up 6% in the last 12 months. Shelter is the largest component of the average household's budget, and stubbornly high inflation in the category has propped up overall inflation readings.

Persons: Spencer Platt, That's, Mark Zandi, it's, Zandi, J.P, Mario Tama, beefsteaks, Amy Smith, Smith Organizations: Getty, U.S . Labor Department, Moody's Analytics, Workers, Labor Department, Morgan's, Investment, Group, Consumer, University of Michigan, Finance Locations: Brooklyn, U.S, Los Angeles, Brazil, Florida

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